Swiss Watch Exports and the US Tariff: What the September 2026 Data Shows
Swiss watch exports September 2026 rose 11.7% to CHF 2.23 billion, and shipments to the United States jumped 86%. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) says the US figure is mainly a base effect, meaning it is measured against a September 2025 that the 39% tariff had crushed. Set against the current US tariff of up to 12.5% and a US market still below its 2024 level, the headline looks stronger than the underlying picture. This report separates the reported numbers from our interpretation.
At a glance
| Detail | Specification |
|---|---|
| Total exports, Sept 2026 | +11.7% to CHF 2.23bn (Bluewin/Keystone-SDA, Oct 20, 2026); Rapaport rounds to +12% |
| United States | +86% to CHF 292.9m (about US$355m at Rapaport's conversion of roughly US$1.21 per franc) |
| China / Hong Kong | -14.2% / +3.0% |
| Jan-Sep 2026 | +2.7% to CHF 19.47bn |
| August 2026 | Total +9.1% to CHF 1.789bn; US -19.4% to CHF 197.5m |
| US tariff in force | Up to 12.5% under Section 301 since July 24, 2026, net of existing MFN duty (SECO) |
What the September 2026 numbers say
According to Keystone-SDA reporting on the FH data, September exports grew 11.7% year on year to CHF 2.23 billion, after August's +9.1% and July's +9.6%. The first nine months are up 2.7% to CHF 19.47 billion. Outlets disagree on the streak: Bloomberg calls September the fifth straight monthly rise, while Bluewin's wording implies the fourth. We could not resolve that.
By market, Rapaport's FH-based breakdown shows the US at CHF 292.9 million (+86%), France CHF 246.5 million (+128%), Japan CHF 177.3 million (+12%), the UK CHF 164.3 million (-5%), Hong Kong CHF 160.5 million (+3%) and China CHF 130.1 million (-14%). Growth was broad across price bands: watches under CHF 200 rose 30%, CHF 200 to 500 rose 52%, CHF 500 to 3,000 rose 12% and those above CHF 3,000 rose 10%, all by value.
The FH itself cautions that France's number may reflect trade flows being reallocated between markets, and Bluewin links France's rise to a logistics-hub effect after lower US tariffs on EU imports. The FH also notes that these are exports by watch companies, not sales to consumers.
What a base effect means here
A base effect is a percentage change that is large mainly because the comparison period was unusually low. Monochrome reported, from FH data, that US exports in September 2025 fell 55.6%, from CHF 355 million to CHF 158 million, after the 39% tariff took effect on August 7, 2025. A rise of 86% on CHF 158 million gives roughly the CHF 292.9 million seen this September.
Our arithmetic, not a reported figure: CHF 292.9 million is still about 17% below the CHF 355 million of September 2024. The US is recovering from a trough, not setting a record.
August shows the same caution in reverse. JCK and Hen & Mills both report US exports down 19.4% to CHF 197.5 million that month, even against an easier comparison, with the US at 11.0% of the total. The FH's first-half release put US exports down 14.8%, against a base inflated by a 150% jump in April 2025 as brands shipped ahead of the tariff. One month of +86% does not undo that.
The US tariff: where it stands
Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) states that since July 24, 2026 the US levies a variable additional tariff of up to 12.5% under Section 301, reduced by the existing most-favoured-nation (MFN) duty. Its example: with a 5% MFN duty, the extra tariff is 7.5%. Crown & Caliber reports that watches are not exempt and that the 12.5% is a combined ceiling rather than a surcharge on top of MFN. We did not verify the MFN rate for watches or read the Federal Register notice itself.
Crown & Caliber counts five rates in about fifteen months: 10% from April 2025, 39% from August 7, 2025, a 15% ceiling from November 14, 2025 under a joint statement, 10% under Section 122 from February 24, 2026, and 12.5% from July 24, 2026. SECO adds that the US Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that the legal basis of the earlier IEEPA tariffs was insufficient, that importers can seek refunds, and that the Section 301 tariffs have not yet been reviewed by a court. A separate Section 301 overcapacity investigation was still unresolved.
What it may mean for US buyers (interpretation)
This section is our reading, not reported fact. Tariffs apply to the import price, not the retail price, according to Monochrome, and brands have handled them differently. We found no fetched source that links a specific retail price change to the 12.5% rate. Our own watch price increases report covers January 2026 rises at Rolex (about 7% in the US), Audemars Piguet (7.5%) and Tudor (5.6%), and Patek Philippe's 8% US cut in February, which that report attributes to currency. It does not tie any of them to tariffs.
A lower rate than 39% could ease pressure on US pricing, but with five rate changes in 15 months, brands have little reason to reprice quickly in either direction. On the secondary market we found no verified data, so we draw no conclusion. Buyers watching Geneva sale prices can see our Geneva auction preview, which is a separate topic.
US exports, the monthly picture
| Period | US exports | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Sept 2024 | CHF 355m (implied by -55.6% to 158m) | Monochrome, from FH |
| Sept 2025 | CHF 158m (-55.6%) | Monochrome, from FH |
| H1 2026 | -14.8% | FH release, Jul 21, 2026 |
| Aug 2026 | CHF 197.5m (-19.4%) | JCK; Hen & Mills |
| Sept 2026 | CHF 292.9m (+86%) | Rapaport, from FH |
Background
Brand context for the exporters most exposed to the US is in our Rolex history, Omega history and TAG Heuer history. For other market stories see our industry watches guide.Sources: Bluewin/Keystone-SDA and Rapaport (both Oct 20, 2026), Bloomberg via swissinfo (Oct 20, 2026), Hen & Mills (Sept 28, 2026), JCK (Sept 17, 2026), Monochrome (Oct 27, 2025), FH first-half release (Jul 21, 2026), SECO, economiesuisse, Crown & Caliber, all retrieved October 25, 2026. We could not find the FH's own September 2026 release or read Swiss customs data, so figures rest on outlets citing the FH. Dollar values use Rapaport's conversion.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much did Swiss watch exports rise in September 2026?
They rose 11.7% to CHF 2.23 billion, according to Keystone-SDA reporting on FH data. Rapaport rounds this to 12%.
Why did US exports jump 86%?
The FH says it was mainly a favorable base effect. September 2025 US exports had fallen 55.6% to CHF 158 million after the 39% tariff took effect.
What is the current US tariff on Swiss watches?
SECO says up to 12.5% under Section 301 since July 24, 2026, reduced by the existing MFN duty. Crown & Caliber says watches are not exempt.
What was the earlier 39% tariff?
A 39% rate took effect on August 7, 2025, and was reduced to a 15% ceiling from November 14, 2025, per Crown & Caliber.
Did US exports fall in August 2026?
Yes. JCK and Hen & Mills report a 19.4% drop to CHF 197.5 million, while total exports rose 9.1%.
Are exports the same as retail sales?
No. They record shipments by watch companies, not purchases by consumers.
Will watch prices in the US change because of the tariff?
We found no source linking a retail price change to the 12.5% rate, so we cannot say.
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